What Could Change in the Autumn Budget 2026

Chancellor John Healey will deliver the Autumn Budget 2026 on 28 October. So far, he has announced no specific Budget tax rises. In his 7 September growth speech, the focus was on growth, devolution, regulation and fiscal discipline, while the big tax questions were left unanswered.

That means most Autumn Budget 2026 predictions remain exactly that: predictions. Previous government commitments ruled out increases to the headline rates of Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT, putting more attention on other taxes, thresholds and reliefs.

In this guide, we separate what is confirmed from what is under consultation and what is still speculation, so you can see which Autumn Budget 2026 tax changes are genuinely worth watching. 

There is already plenty of speculation ahead of the Autumn Budget 2026, but some tax changes have been confirmed well before 28 October. The table below separates what is already happening from what is still only a possibility.

The main point: Some of the tax changes people are discussing are already scheduled and are not new Autumn Budget 2026 announcements. The real Budget question is whether the Chancellor goes further on 28 October.

So far, John Healey has not announced any major Autumn Budget 2026 tax changes.

His 7 September speech focused mainly on growth, investment, skills, devolution and keeping the public finances under control. He confirmed plans for greater business rates retention and a share of local Income Tax receipts for mayoral authorities from 2028 but did not set out changes to the main tax rates, thresholds or reliefs.

That leaves plenty of room for speculation. Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax and pensions are all being discussed ahead of 28 October, but none of those changes has been confirmed by the Chancellor.

For now, the best way to read Autumn Budget 2026 predictions is to separate what has actually been announced from what commentators think could happen.

What Has John Healey Confirmed for Autumn Budget 2026?

So far, John Healey has not set out a package of new tax changes for the Autumn Budget 2026.

His clearest commitment is a new fiscal devolution roadmap, giving local areas more control over funding. This includes greater business rates retention and a share of local Income Tax receipts for Mayoral Strategic Authorities from 2028.

He has also announced a £150 million British Business Bank allocation for high-growth firms in the North, plans to cut the Green Book discount rate from 3.5% to 3%, and backed the government’s target to reduce the administrative burden of regulation by 25%.

For now, the focus is clearly on devolution, investment and growth, while the bigger tax questions remain unanswered.

John Healey has not confirmed tax rises for the Autumn Budget 2026, but he has made clear that the state of the public finances will shape his decisions.

In his September speech, Healey committed to meeting the fiscal rules and keeping a buffer for unexpected shocks. He also highlighted the cost of government debt, saying around £1 in every £10 of public spending goes on debt interest. Central government debt interest alone reached £96.9 billion in 2025/26.

At the Spring Forecast, the government had £23.6 billion of headroom against its stability rule. The updated position will not be known until the Budget forecast.

That financial pressure helps explain why Autumn Budget 2026 tax rises are attracting so much attention. But the distinction matters: the pressure is real, while the tax changes themselves remain unconfirmed.

Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT are always closely watched at Budget time. So far, no further Autumn Budget 2026 changes to these three taxes have been officially announced.

Income Tax: The Personal Allowance remains £12,570 until April 2031. In England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the higher-rate threshold remains £50,270 over the same period. As earnings rise while thresholds stay frozen, more income can gradually fall into higher tax bands without any change in the headline rates. From 2028, Mayoral Strategic Authorities are also due to receive a share of local Income Tax receipts, changing how some existing tax revenue is distributed rather than how much individuals pay.

National Insurance: Key employee and self-employed thresholds are also due to remain frozen until April 2031. Under current rules, employees generally stop paying employee NIC once they reach State Pension age, while Class 4 NIC for the self-employed is charged at 6% on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 and 2% above that. No additional Autumn Budget change has yet been announced.

VAT: From 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, qualifying domestic electricity in Great Britain will temporarily be zero-rated for VAT. Domestic gas remains subject to the 5% reduced rate, while the VAT registration threshold remains £90,000.

For now, any further Autumn Budget 2026 changes to Income Tax, National Insurance or VAT remain unconfirmed.

Capital Gains Tax is once again being discussed ahead of the Autumn Budget 2026, but no new CGT rate changes have been announced.

The main CGT rates are currently 18% and 24%. These increased from 10% and 20% in October 2024, bringing them into line with the rates already applying to residential property.

There is also a reason to be cautious about assuming that higher rates automatically mean more tax revenue. In 2024, the government cut the higher CGT rate on residential property from 28% to 24%, expecting the lower rate to encourage more sales and increase overall receipts.

Worked example

If you had a £100,000 taxable gain:

The 28% rate is simply an example, not a Budget prediction. Your actual CGT bill will depend on your income, available losses and reliefs, and the type of asset you sell.

For now, any further Capital Gains Tax changes in the Autumn Budget 2026 remain unconfirmed.

Inheritance Tax and pensions have already seen some major changes, which is why both are likely to stay in focus ahead of the Autumn Budget 2026.

For IHT, changes to Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief took effect on 6 April 2026. Under the current rules, qualifying agricultural and business assets can benefit from 100% relief within a combined £2.5 million allowance, with 50% relief applying above that level.

Another change is due from 6 April 2027, when most unused pension funds and certain pension death benefits are set to fall within the deceased person’s estate for IHT purposes.

For pensions, the next confirmed change comes in April 2029, when the National Insurance exemption for pension contributions made through salary sacrifice will be limited to £2,000 a year.

Beyond these measures, no further changes to IHT, pension tax relief or tax-free cash have been announced for the Autumn Budget 2026. Until the Chancellor sets out the Budget, anything further remains speculation.

For businesses, the Autumn Budget 2026 looks more focused on business rates, regulation and compliance than headline tax changes.

The government plans to let councils keep more of the business rates they collect, with further detail due at the Budget. In England, eligible pubs, social clubs and live music venues are also set to get 20% business rates cut from April 2027. Wider reform, including Small Business Rates Relief, is also due to return to the agenda.

Healey has also backed a target to cut the burden of business regulation by 25% by the end of Parliament.

On compliance, mandatory payrolling of certain benefits in kind starts from 6 April 2027. HMRC is also consulting on company distributions, while draft rules would introduce new requirements for correcting errors in tax returns.

For now, the main Corporation Tax rate remains 25%, with no new Autumn Budget increase announced so far.

For property investors, the main thing is to separate what is already changing from what is still only Budget speculation.

For commercial property, the government plans to let councils and strategic authorities keep more of the business rates raised locally. The detail is still to come, but this could make local business rates decisions more important for investors.

Residential landlords already have a major tax change ahead. From 6 April 2027, property Income Tax rates of 22%, 42% and 47% are due to apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Owners of higher-value homes in England should also be aware of the High Value Council Tax Surcharge from April 2028, which will apply to homes valued at £2 million or more.

Beyond these confirmed changes, any further moves on property tax, CGT or SDLT in the Autumn Budget 2026 remain unconfirmed.

For the property-specific impact, see our separate Autumn Budget 2026 landlord tax changes analysis.

There is already a long list of tax and policy changes in the pipeline, but not all of them are new Autumn Budget 2026 announcements.

The picture becomes much clearer once you separate what is actually happening from what is still being discussed. So far, Healey’s confirmed agenda has focused more on devolution, investment and regulation, while many of the bigger tax changes attracting headlines remain unconfirmed.

We are not telling anyone to restructure on the strength of a newspaper story, and we are certainly not telling anyone to act on a prediction the Chancellor has never made. What we are telling clients is to know their own numbers before the speech, so that if something does land, the decision takes days rather than weeks.

A short pre-Budget checklist:

• Quantify any unrealised gains and note whether a disposal was already planned for this tax year
• Check whether your estate relies on agricultural or business property relief, and by how much
• Review pension contributions and any salary sacrifice arrangement running past 2029
• Confirm your position against frozen thresholds, particularly around the £100,000 income mark
• For commercial property holders, watch the business rates retention detail in the devolution roadmap
• Diarise 28/09/2026 (conference speech) and 28/10/2026 (Budget Day)

The Autumn Budget 2026 will bring plenty of headlines, but not every announcement will affect you.

The useful step now is to understand your own position. If you know where the pressure points are in your property, investments or business, you can respond to the changes that matter and ignore the noise.